U.S. and Israel likely to launch third Iran war after Nov. 3 vote

More than 7,000 people have died in Iran as Western NGOs count the toll of two recent conflicts. That figure may rise sharply if analysts are correct that a third round of fighting begins soon.

Danny Citrinowicz, an Israeli analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies, told CBC News that a renewed war seems almost inevitable once U.S. midterm elections conclude on Nov. 3. Citrinowicz, who spent more than two decades in Israeli military intelligence, expects the next phase to strike Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and underwater internet lines in the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. and Israel have fought Iran twice in the past 18 months under Presidents Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu. The first war started in June 2025 with attacks on nuclear sites and ended after 12 days. A second conflict began in February following a large U.S. military buildup, opening with strikes on Iranian leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Citrinowicz warned that Iran might deploy land forces in limited attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain to damage the U.S. economy. He noted that Trump has only bad and worse options in the region. Current friction includes a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and Iranian attacks on commercial shipping. Trump accused Iran on Truth Social of inflating oil prices before the midterms, claiming it was making up fake hits and mines.

Iran demands sanctions relief, reparations, and the release of frozen assets. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have failed to restart talks in recent weeks. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution said the war has pushed Iranian leadership to double down on revolutionary ideology. She warned that proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah may target soft economic sites such as airports.

The human cost extends beyond Iran. Lebanese media report over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. Twenty-one U.S. service members and more than 70 Israelis have been killed. Deaths have also been recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen. The Pentagon is reportedly drafting a new battle plan, though it is unclear if Trump will approve it.

Netanyahu has spoken of finishing the job and bringing down the Iranian regime. He faces voters in the coming days in a close race. Citrinowicz said a widening crisis could help Netanyahu form an emergency unity government. The danger, he added, is that political calculation combines with an Iranian development that Netanyahu may inflate, producing an unnecessary attack.