Trump aides ready to partner with Israel's opposition if polls hold

The opposition bloc in Israel currently holds a 54-seat advantage over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's camp in the latest Maariv poll. This widening gap has led advisers to President Donald Trump to begin planning for a scenario where the current prime minister loses the election scheduled for October 27.

US officials told Axios that the administration sees opportunities to collaborate with Netanyahu's political rivals if he exits power. One Trump adviser described the current situation by saying, "[Netanyahu] is the devil [Trump] knows." The report indicates that many of the president's closest aides opposed his decision to endorse Netanyahu, arguing he should have stayed out of the race entirely.

Vice President JD Vance addressed the controversy this week when asked about the race. He stated, "I'm not attacking Bibi Netanyahu. I'm not endorsing Bibi Netanyahu.. I think the president's endorsement is ultimately what matters." Vance's comments highlight the internal dynamic where the vice president does not explicitly back the prime minister, leaving the president's endorsement as the key factor.

Strains within the administration regarding Israeli policy are also evident. US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack raised concerns about the Netanyahu government's approach to Syria. After Israeli strikes hit a base in Syria's northern Idlib province, Barrack called the attack an "unnecessary escalation that does not advance regional stability."

Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his team maintain a better relationship with the prime minister but believe Israel could do more to strengthen Lebanon's government. They have expressed frustration with what they view as Netanyahu's failure to curb settler attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank.

The Maariv survey found that 60% of respondents would prefer a unity government if the election does not produce a clear majority. Among those who support a unity government, 33% want a candidate from the opposition bloc to lead it, while 19% prefer Netanyahu. In a direct matchup for prime minister, opposition leader Eisenkot leads Netanyahu with 49% support against 41% for the incumbent.

The election is set to take place on October 27. The current polling data suggests a tight race, with the opposition holding a six-seat lead. The White House is preparing its diplomatic strategy based on these numbers and the internal views of its senior staff.