59 Million Ballots Cast Ahead of Final Count for Congress Control

More than 59 million voters have already cast their ballots, a figure approaching half of the total votes recorded in the previous midterm cycle.

This early surge gives Democrats a double-digit advantage in available data as Election Day arrives. The party currently holds the lead in the race for the House of Representatives. Control of that chamber requires flipping only three seats from the current majority.

Analysts note that the political environment has shifted in favor of Democrats over the past month. Republicans attempted to secure their positions through mid-decade redistricting, but that strategy may not be sufficient to prevent a loss of the chamber.

The Senate race presents a different set of challenges. Democrats need to flip four seats to take control, a goal that seemed unlikely at the start of the cycle. Strong candidate recruitment and a tough national environment for Republicans have made this outcome possible.

North Carolina is the one seat where Democrats are currently favored. Beyond that, the remaining toss-up races are located in states Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024, with the exception of Maine. These districts include five races where Republicans are slight favorites or the contests are too close to call.

Republican turnout will be the deciding variable for the Senate. If GOP voters show up in high numbers, Democrats may win only one seat. If turnout is low, Republicans could lose up to six or seven seats, handing the chamber to Democrats. Michigan is the top target for Republicans, and a victory there would alter the Democratic strategy for the remaining races.

Results will begin to emerge at 6 p.m. ET from Kentucky and Indiana. Many races are expected to be close, meaning final tallies could take days or even weeks to confirm as states count ballots.