Lebanese Shi'ite Poll Shows Shift in Support for Hezbollah Armament

A recent survey has revealed a significant shift in sentiment among Lebanon's Shi'ite community regarding the fate of Hezbollah's arsenal. The data suggests that the majority of this demographic now favors handing the group's weapons over to the Lebanese state, marking a notable departure from previous assumptions about the group's unshakeable base of support.

The poll was conducted by Statistics Lebanon in September and surveyed 800 Shi'ite respondents. The results showed that 66.4% of those polled supported transferring control of the weapons to the state, while 29.6% preferred that Hezbollah retain its arsenal. Hezbollah has historically maintained that its weapons are a vital shield for Lebanon against Israel, a stance that appears to be losing traction among its core constituency.

Further details reported by Kataeb.org, a website associated with the Christian Kataeb Party, highlight a broader desire for state authority. According to the data, 71.1% of respondents believed that decisions regarding war and peace should rest exclusively with the Lebanese government. Only 5.9% felt that Hezbollah's leadership should play a larger role in shaping the country's future direction.

Trust in the Lebanese Armed Forces remains strong within the community. Approximately 78.5% of respondents expressed confidence in the army, and 51.1% identified it as the institution best equipped to ensure long-term security. In contrast, only 16.5% selected Hezbollah for that role. These figures challenge the group's traditional narrative that it is the primary guarantor of security for Shi'ites.

Despite the shift, the picture is not uniform. About 67.4% of respondents said Hezbollah had either failed to achieve its goals in the war with Israel or met only some of them. Additionally, 42.1% expressed disappointment, anger, or concern about the group's leadership and the conflict's consequences. However, 59.5% still reported some level of trust in the organization, with 37.1% indicating a great deal of trust. Roi Kais from Israel's KAN broadcaster noted that Hezbollah's social networks and status continue to sustain its strength, particularly as long as no other entity fills the vacuum.

These findings contrast sharply with an earlier survey conducted in May 2026 by Lebanon's Information International. That poll, cited by researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni in a June analysis for the Institute for National Security Studies, found that 87.5% of Shi'ite respondents opposed disarming Hezbollah. The significant gap between the two surveys raises questions about how different wording or agendas may influence results.

Mizrahi and Levanoni argued that Hezbollah's influence is rooted in its social and economic networks, political power, and the historical marginalization of Shi'ites. They also suggested that intimidation has discouraged dissent within the community. In their view, weakening the group would require a stronger Lebanese army and financial support from Western and Gulf nations to help the state replace the services Hezbollah provides.

Local signs of wariness are emerging as well. In the southern city of Tyre, property owners reportedly opposed opening a branch of Al-Qard Al-Hassan, a Hezbollah-linked financial institution, in their building due to fears of Israeli strikes. Hezbollah has announced aid packages for families who lost their primary homes, offering up to $14,000 for those in Beirut and its southern suburbs and up to $12,000 elsewhere. The group has suffered major losses, including the killing of Hassan Nasrallah in September 2024, and a new war in March 2026 caused heavy destruction in southern Lebanon. Future political changes may depend on whether the state can offer security, reconstruction, and economic opportunity.