Hawai’i Voters Face Cost of Living and Third-Party Bid in Tuesday Elections

Hawai’s voters will decide Tuesday whether Republicans can expand their foothold in the state Legislature or if Democrats will hold their majority amid high costs of living. The general election for the mid-term cycle is set for Tuesday, with the Office of Elections planning to release results in the evening after the last voter in line at service centers casts a ballot. Residents may remain in line until 7 p.m. to vote. Many citizens have already mailed their ballots or dropped them in boxes, as the state operates on a vote-by-mail system.

The political landscape in the islands shifted in 2024 when Republicans won three state House seats and one Senate seat, all located on West O‘ahu. The GOP now controls 10 of the 51 House seats and three of the 25 Senate seats. Former lawmaker Beth Fukumoto suggests voters may punish Democrats for the high cost of living and recent bribery indictments. Conversely, University of Hawai’i political science professor Colin Moore predicts Republicans will lose ground because President Donald Trump is not on the ballot, reducing the turnout of his 2024 supporters.

A rare three-way race in West O‘ahu offers a potential breakthrough for the Green Party. Incumbent Elle Cochran, who switched from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party in March, faces Sne Patel of the Democratic Party and Pa‘ele Kiakona of the Green Party. Cochran, who missed 51 of the last 60 legislative days to assist Lahaina fire survivors, seeks to retain her seat. Kiakona, a leader with the Lahaina Strong group, has secured endorsements from the International Longshore and Warehouse Union and the Hawaii Government Employees Association. A third-party victory would mark the first time since 1904 that such a lawmaker serves in the legislature.

Turnout in Hawai’i has lagged behind the 2022 mid-term election, according to Moore, who cites a lack of competitive major races. Voters will also weigh multiple ballot measures, including 20 questions in Honolulu. One state amendment proposes RISE bonds to fund infrastructure for new housing districts, a measure supported by the RISE Together Hawai’i PAC, which spent over $2.8 million on advertising. Another Honolulu measure would introduce ranked-choice voting for local offices starting in 2032.

In federal races, Democrats hope to reclaim control of the U.S. House and Senate based on voter frustration with inflation and tariffs. If they take the Senate, Senator Brian Schatz could become majority whip, a position Moore describes as one of the county’s most powerful roles. This would grant Hawai’i greater influence over national legislation. Schatz currently serves as chief deputy whip, following the retirement of Senator Dick Durbin.

Campaign spending in Maui County has centered on the mayor’s race. The For A Better Tomorrow PAC, backed by the Hawaii Regional Council of Carpenters, spent over $2 million to support County Council member Yuki Lei Sugimura in her bid to unseat Mayor Richard Bissen. The PAC also spent over $11,000 against Bissen. This spending equals approximately $17 for each of the nearly 117,000 registered voters in Maui County. The HiVISION2020 PAC added $21,000 to Sugimura’s general election support, while Hawaii Workers Strong spent nearly $40,000 for Bissen.