Three Haredi Seats and Naftali Bennett Could Decide Israel's Next Government

Three Knesset seats could determine the composition of Israel's next government, according to assessments circulating within the political establishment. The faction in question is Agudat Yisrael, a haredi party led by Yitzhak Goldknopf. With voting set to begin less than a day from now, strategists are weighing scenarios where this small bloc offers support to a cabinet formed by the current opposition.

One proposed arrangement involves Agudat Yisrael providing backing to an opposition-led government in exchange for specific budgetary agreements. However, analysts note that even such a deal might not eliminate the need for votes from Arab parties. The possibility of cooperation between the haredi faction and the change bloc is not entirely new. In August, Maariv reported that Agudat Yisrael was exploring fresh political options, including potential collaboration with Gadi Eisenkot.

These internal discussions coincide with rising friction within United Torah Judaism. Tensions have escalated between Agudat Yisrael and Degel Hatorah regarding the haredi military draft and the relationship with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Agudat Yisrael has expressed disappointment with the behavior of the current coalition, while Degel Hatorah has signaled a lack of confidence in Netanyahu's leadership. Rabbi Dov Lando recently sent a letter expressing reservations about maintaining the commitment to the Likud-led bloc, adding to the uncertainty surrounding these ties.

Despite these internal shifts, Goldknopf faces a significant hurdle. His voter base is largely aligned with the Right. Assessments suggest that any visible sign of support for a change bloc government could drive some of his supporters toward Likud or Otzma Yehudit. This dynamic makes the potential deal a high-stakes gamble for the party leader.

Political attention is also turning to former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. If neither major bloc secures the 61 seats required for a Knesset majority, Bennett could become the deciding factor. One scenario under discussion involves Bennett joining a Netanyahu-led government. While considered a remote possibility, some believe Bennett is the only leader in the change bloc with the right-wing background to make such a move, despite the complexity of shifting his current party's support base.

Former Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman has also been mentioned as a potential mover, given his history of joining a Netanyahu cabinet. However, current assessments hold that personal and political disagreements make a similar step unlikely for Liberman at this time. These remain scenarios and political calculations rather than finalized agreements.