70,000: The Gaza Toll in a Tight Israeli Vote

Israelis voted Tuesday in a 120-seat Knesset race defined by a close poll and the death toll in Gaza.

The contest is less a traditional left-right split and more a referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He has held the office for 19 of the past 30 years. Polls show the pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu camps running nearly even.

The opposition bloc includes former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman. Both are right-wing figures who previously served under Netanyahu before breaking with him. Leading challenger Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff, entered politics only four years ago. His party, Yashar, advocates for US-style term limits for the prime minister. Eisenkot argues that power corrupts and calls for a country without lies. He did not respond to a slur made on air by a rival media personality during the final week of campaigning.

On the far right, Yishai Fleisher of the Otzma Yehudit party told voters in Bet Shemesh that Netanyahu drifts left. He proposed more settlements in the West Bank and Gaza, a ministry to encourage the voluntary departure of Palestinians, and the death penalty.

Netanyahu’s campaign posters contrasted the right with Palestine. They placed opposition leaders next to the heads of two parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel. These citizens make up about a fifth of the population. Pro-Netanyahu media, including Channel 14, kept his opponents on the defensive. One exception occurred when Channel 14 host Yinon Magal called Eisenkot a Moroccan monkey. Supporters of Eisenkot praised his restraint in not repeating the term.

The election follows the deadliest attack in Israel’s history on October 7, 2023. Netanyahu’s war in Gaza has killed more than 70,000 Palestinians. Israel states a third of those were Hamas combatants. The war did not eradicate Hamas, and Iran’s nuclear threat remains. Netanyahu also faces a corruption trial and the fallout from his attempt to curb the supreme court.

Netanyahu’s durability relies on a loyal base built over three decades. His allies claim military and intelligence chiefs kept him in the dark about the 2023 attack, a claim they have not substantiated. He is considered a skilled coalition builder. Many expect him to outmaneuver rivals in post-vote negotiations.

Opposition hopes include liberal, secular expatriates flying home to vote. Pollsters do not track this group, but it could decide the race if it turns on a single seat. On Thursday, a state ceremony marked the 1995 assassination of Yitzhak Rabin. Netanyahu stayed away and sent a low-ranking minister. Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats, expressed optimism about a regional strategic process. A video of young Israelis singing Rabin’s song at a Negev music festival circulated widely this week.