Bobby Pulido leads Texas 15th district polls by five points

Hispanic voters in Texas are moving away from the Republican Party ahead of the November 3 midterm elections, despite Donald Trump's record 55 percent support among that demographic in 2024. The shift is most visible in the Rio Grande Valley, a region that gave the president his strongest showing with border communities. Recent surveys indicate a majority of Hispanic voters in the state now disapprove of the president and prefer Democratic candidates over Republicans by a wide margin.

The political atmosphere in the area has changed markedly since the 2024 campaign, when Trump pledged to end illegal crossings. That promise contributed to his historic vote share and helped justify early congressional redistricting efforts by Republican governors. In 2025, Texas redrew its 15th congressional district to secure an 18 point notional majority for Republicans. Current polling shows a different reality, with Democratic candidate Bobby Pulido holding a lead of five or six points in the newly drawn seat.

Pulido, a Tejano singer and two time Latin Grammy winner, has campaigned on economic issues rather than national party branding. He told voters, "This isn't New York, this isn't LA," emphasizing local concerns. At a recent avocado festival, residents Dave Baldwin and Veronica Salazar cited rising prices as a primary reason for their changing views. Baldwin stated, "He is in control of our destiny with all that, and right now he's not doing a very good job."

Border enforcement actions have intensified in the region, contributing to the voter sentiment shift. Texas accounted for roughly one third of all Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests nationwide in July 2026, a higher share than any other state. Local leaders and residents say the crackdown is affecting the labor force and community cohesion. Mario Guerrero, a Mexican American businessman who voted for Trump three times, plans to support a Democrat in November. He noted that a crew of 35 daily workers has shrunk to just four or six due to the enforcement climate.

Religious and civic leaders are also vocal about the changes. Father Roy Snipes, who has served La Lomita Catholic Chapel for nearly 50 years, preached about the treatment of neighbors during a service attended by about 30 people. The chapel, located 200 yards from the Rio Grande, was previously targeted for land seizure for a border wall. Snipes said, "There's no good excuse to detain, incarcerate and deport poor, good folks who are our neighbours."

Republican officials acknowledge the challenges they face. Javier Villalobos, the Republican mayor of McAllen, described the upcoming race as tough. He credited the administration with securing the border but noted that deporting productive, law abiding citizens has created friction. Republican consultant Mike Madrid pointed out that Latino voters are more likely to identify as independents than any other group, making them a decisive bloc. In the neighboring 28th district, Republican candidate Tano Tijerina admitted that "national political headwinds are real" despite credit for "breaking through barriers."

The outcome of these races could have implications beyond Texas. If the polling holds, a modest swing back to Democrats could put a US Senate seat in play, one that Democrats have not won in more than 30 years. Student volunteer Alexis Uscanga described the midterms as "purely a game of turnout," indicating that voter participation will be the determining factor. The Rio Grande Valley, once a stronghold for the Republican Party under the new map, is now testing whether the 2024 alignment was permanent or a temporary reaction to border conditions.

The area has a long history as a major crossing point, with more than 2.5 million apprehensions recorded in a single year under former President Joe Biden. Under Trump, border crossings have dropped to their lowest levels in decades. This achievement satisfied some voters but introduced new economic and social pressures that are now shaping the ballot. The next few weeks will determine if the structural advantage of the redistricted 15th district can overcome the current sentiment among Hispanic voters in the Valley.