Zelenskyy's Drone Push Leaves Moscow Airports Grounded for Up to Nine Hours a Day

Moscow’s four major airports have suspended flight operations for nearly every day in October. On several occasions, the closures lasted up to nine hours. The disruption stems from Ukrainian drone strikes that force Russian aviation authorities to invoke strict safety measures.

The pattern of shutdowns began in early September. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine aimed to make Russian airspace unsafe for travel. He specifically addressed airlines and insurers, stating that the airspace would become completely unsafe. The following day, Ukraine sent a formal warning to the International Civil Aviation Organization.

Ukrainian airspace has remained closed since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. The current campaign targets the airspace around Moscow and other Russian destinations. Independent investigative outlet Agentstvo reported that Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, Zhukovsky, and Vnukovo airports have faced daily suspensions this month.

The closures are triggered by a procedure run by Rosaviatsiya, Russia’s aviation authority. Known as the carpet protocol, this measure closes airspace over a region when an aircraft violates Russian airspace, weapons are used, or unidentified objects appear. Oleksandr Laneckij, chief executive of Friendly Avia Support, noted that every drone poses a military threat under these rules.

Military analyst Jan Matvejev stated that Ukraine does not need advanced technology to disrupt traffic. He explained that simple drones without warheads or long range are sufficient to trigger the protocol. Ukraine’s arms industry can produce hundreds of combat-ready long-range drones daily, a capacity that far exceeds the capabilities of other regional actors.

Simon Shuster wrote in The Atlantic in October that Ukraine’s efforts are just getting started. He cited well-informed sources to support this assessment. Matvejev argued that Russian air defenses have not proven fully effective against the drones. He suggested that if Russia could easily shoot them down, it would have done so by now.

Laneckij warned that Russia might lower the threshold for declaring the carpet protocol. This could increase the danger to civilian flights, similar to the Christmas day crash in 2024. Investigators determined that an Azerbaijan Airlines flight was hit by a Russian air-defense missile fired to counter drones, killing 38 people. Matvejev said little has changed in Russia’s protocol since that incident.

The risk depends on the weapon used. Matvejev said the risk to aircraft is extremely low when a low-flying drone is shot with a machine gun. However, missiles present a different danger because mass production defects could send them toward nearby airliners. He also noted that drones do not need explosives to cause harm, as a collision can be severe. A drone flown from Ukraine to Moscow must weigh dozens of kilograms.

Other airports have also faced disruptions. Ukrainian forces attacked Pskov airport in the summer of 2023. Drone debris fell on Sochi airport earlier this month. Russia has also struck Ukrainian airports. Zelenskyy said in September that Kyiv’s airport and Boryspil were hit.

Foreign airlines are deciding whether to continue flying to Russia based on three factors: military threat, demand, and insurance costs. Laneckij said that if insurers rate the risk as very high, they could sharply raise premiums. This would send ticket prices soaring. Competition in Russia’s aviation market has already shrunk as many airlines have gone out of business, pushing up demand for seats on remaining foreign carriers.